{"id":4350,"date":"2026-04-10T15:38:22","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T15:38:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/uncategorized\/iklim-degisikligi-senaryolarinda-menderes-havzasi-ve-incir-1\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T14:14:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T14:14:39","slug":"iklim-degisikligi-senaryolarinda-menderes-havzasi-ve-incir-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/tarim\/iklim-degisikligi-senaryolarinda-menderes-havzasi-ve-incir-1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130KL\u0130M DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130KL\u0130\u011e\u0130 SENARYOLARINDA MENDERES HAVZASI ve \u0130NC\u0130R"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-content\">\n<p>\t<title><\/title><\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlar\u0131ndan biri ya\u015fanmakta olan iklim de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin bir sonucu olarak ekstrem hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n frekans ve \u015fiddetindeki art\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye genelinde minimum k\u0131\u015f s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 ve minimum ve maksimum yaz s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve azalan ya\u011f\u0131\u015f e\u011filimlerini i\u015faret etmektedir (T\u00fcrke\u015f ve S\u00fcmer, 2004).<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcndemdeki yerini s\u00fcrekli koruyan kurakl\u0131k ger\u00e7e\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zellikle Ege, Akdeniz ve \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu b\u00f6lgelerinde yar\u0131 kurak iklim b\u00f6lgelerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p kurak iklim s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131na dahil olma noktas\u0131na gelmi\u015ftir (T\u00fcrke\u015f, 2003). T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen iklim senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n irdelendi\u011fi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalarda ilk periyod olan 2011-2040 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan d\u00f6nemde k\u0131\u015f\u0131n 0,5 \u00b0C, yaz\u0131n 1,0 \u00b0C s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, 2041-2070 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan ikinci periyotta bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1,5 \u00b0C &#8211; 2,4 \u00b0C olaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. 2071-2100 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinin \u015fiddetli olarak hissedilece\u011fi d\u00f6nem \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00f6nemdir. Buna g\u00f6re k\u0131y\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klarda 5-6 \u00b0C, \u00f6zellikle Ege B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nde yaz aylar\u0131 s\u00fcresince 7-8 \u00b0C art\u0131\u015f, ya\u011f\u0131\u015flarda %40\u2019l\u0131k bir azalma beklenmektedir (Demir ve ark., 2008; Talu ve ark., 2010). T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131, bitki biyok\u00fctlesi, su kaynaklar\u0131 ve besin temini \u00fczerindeki etkileri, United Kingdom Meteorological Office Hadley Centre \u0130kinci \u0130klim Modeli\u2019nin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re (UKMO\/DETR, 1999) b\u00f6lgesel olarak de\u011ferlendirilmi\u015ftir. Hadley Centre modeli, atmosferdeki CO2 birikimlerini 750 ppm ve 550 ppm d\u00fczeylerinde durduran CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131 senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 temel almaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada CO2 ve \u00f6teki sera gazlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar i\u00e7in herhangi bir \u00f6nlemin al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul eden sal\u0131mlar\u0131n kontrol edilmedi\u011fi (azalt\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131) senaryoya dayal\u0131 model sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, durdurma senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 model sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yla bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131labilsin diye birlikte ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu yeni model sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan yararlanarak, 2080\u2019li y\u0131llara kadar T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirme a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da verilmi\u015ftir:<br \/>\n\u00a0<br \/>\nS\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri; atmosferdeki CO2 gaz\u0131 birikimini (insan etkinlikleri sonucunda atmosfere verilen sal\u0131mlarla ili\u015fkili fazla birikimler) azaltmak i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 \u00f6nlemin al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul eden senaryoya g\u00f6re, 2080\u2019li y\u0131llara kadar T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klarda (1961-1990 normaliyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) yakla\u015f\u0131k 3-4 \u00b0C art\u0131\u015f; CO2 birikimlerini 750 ppm\u2019de durdurmay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren senaryoya g\u00f6re, y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 2-3 \u00b0C art\u0131\u015f; CO2 birikimlerini 550 ppm\u2019de durduran senaryoya g\u00f6re, y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131klarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1-2 \u00b0C art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<br \/>\n\u00a0<br \/>\nYa\u011f\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri; sal\u0131mlar\u0131n kontrol edilmedi\u011fi senaryoya g\u00f6re, 2080\u2019li y\u0131llara kadar T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama ya\u011f\u0131\u015flarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 0 ile \u20131 mm\/g\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015fiklik (azalma); CO2 birikimlerini 750 ve 550 ppm\u2019de durdurmay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren her iki senaryoya g\u00f6re, 2080\u2019li y\u0131llara kadar T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama ya\u011f\u0131\u015flarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 0 ile \u20130.5 mm\/g\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015fiklik (azalma) beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6lgesel olarak ya\u015fanan bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikler k\u00fcresel anlamda daha ciddi sorunlar\u0131 beraberinde getirecektir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 20-30 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bu de\u011fi\u015fikliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclecek \u00fcr\u00fcn desenindeki de\u011fi\u015fikliklere ili\u015fkin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Gelecek ya\u015fanacak bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikten en \u00e7ok etkilenecek bitki t\u00fcrleri aras\u0131nda incir gibi y\u00fczy\u0131llard\u0131r yeti\u015fti\u011fi b\u00f6lgenin bitki \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturmu\u015f, do\u011fal olarak yay\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6stermi\u015f ve \u00fcr\u00fcn kalitesi iklime bire bir ba\u011fl\u0131 olan bitkiler olacakt\u0131r. 21. Y\u00fczy\u0131lda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin sonucu olarak kurak \u015fartlar\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn veriminde neden olabilece\u011fi etkiler \u00fczerine kurgulanan proje sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda Gediz, B\u00fcy\u00fck ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Menderes havzalar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ene alan b\u00f6lgenin \u00f6zellikle yaz ayalar\u0131ndaki kurakl\u0131ktan en \u00e7ok etkilenecek alan olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (Sen, 2012). \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin B\u00fcy\u00fck Menderes havzas\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131na etkilerinin ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 projede 45 y\u0131ll\u0131k verilerden yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131larak yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmede ya\u011f\u0131\u015f miktarlar\u0131nda istatiksel anlamda \u00f6nemli azalman\u0131n 1990\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve en \u00e7ok azalan b\u00f6lgenin %-14,4\u2019l\u00fck de\u011ferle Ayd\u0131n oldu\u011fu bulunmu\u015ftur (Durdu, 2010). \u00d6zkul (2009) ve arkada\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 havzalar\u0131 konu alan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda benzer sonu\u00e7lar elde edilmi\u015f, 2100\u2019li y\u0131llarda bu havzay\u0131 besleyen su kaynaklar\u0131nda %50 azalma olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc taktirde bu b\u00f6lgede yeni \u00fcr\u00fcn deseni ve \u00f6nlem al\u0131c\u0131 tar\u0131msal uygulamalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereklili\u011fi vurgulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Menderes havzalar\u0131nda iklim ve toprak \u015fartlar\u0131 gerek incirin d\u00f6llenmesi ve yeti\u015ftirilmesi ve gerekse de kurutulmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ideal \u00f6zelliktedir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kaliteli taze ve kuru incirleri bu ekolojik b\u00f6lgeden elde edilir. \u00d6zellikle olgunla\u015fma ve g\u00fcne\u015fte yap\u0131lan kurutma d\u00f6nemlerinde (Temmuz, A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl) ekolojik ko\u015fullar\u0131n elveri\u015flili\u011fi nedeni ile B\u00fcy\u00fck ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Menderes havzalar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm \u00fcretimi, kaliteli kuru incir elde etmeye y\u00f6neliktir. Ekstrem iklim olaylar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcretim sezonlar\u0131nda incirin kalite ve veriminde d\u00fc\u015fmeler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 incir ihracat\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli sorunu olan mikotoksin (aflatoksin, okratoksin, fumonisin) riskinin al\u0131nan t\u00fcm \u00f6nlemlere ra\u011fmen \u00fcretim sezonu s\u00fcresince meydana gelen iklimsel fakt\u00f6rlerin etkisi alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir (Bircan, 2008; K\u00f6so\u011flu, 2011). \u00a0Ayd\u0131n ilinde incirin %22\u2019si al\u00e7ak rak\u0131mlarda (50-250m), %29\u2019u orta rak\u0131mlarda (250- 500m), % 43&#8217;\u00fc orta-y\u00fcksek rak\u0131mlarda (500-750m), %4\u2019\u00fc ise y\u00fcksek rak\u0131mlarda (750-900m) bulunur (K\u00f6so\u011flu ve Bucak, 2008). \u0130ncir literat\u00fcrde her ne kadar kurak ko\u015fullarda yeti\u015ftiricili\u011fi yap\u0131labilen bitkiler s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131na girse de y\u0131ll\u0131k ya\u011f\u0131\u015f rejiminde meydana gelen sapmalardan en fazla etkilenen bitki t\u00fcrlerinden biridir. \u0130ncir veriminde son 20 y\u0131ld\u0131r ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015fme trendine bitkinin uzun d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi stres ko\u015fullar\u0131na adaptasyonunun bir sonucu olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalara ivedilikle ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlar\u0131ndan biri ya\u015fanmakta olan iklim de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin bir sonucu olarak ekstrem hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n frekans ve \u015fiddetindeki art\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye genelinde minimum k\u0131\u015f s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 ve minimum ve maksimum yaz s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve azalan ya\u011f\u0131\u015f e\u011filimlerini i\u015faret etmektedir (T\u00fcrke\u015f ve S\u00fcmer, 2004). G\u00fcndemdeki yerini s\u00fcrekli koruyan kurakl\u0131k ger\u00e7e\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zellikle Ege, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":6722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[206],"class_list":["post-4350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tarim","tag-10-sayi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/48"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4350"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4350\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7370,"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4350\/revisions\/7370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apelasyon.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}